Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• Asia
• South_America

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • South Africa
  • Tunisia
  • Cabo Verde
  • Libya
  • Morocco
  • Egypt
  • Djibouti
  • Equatorial Guinea
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Togo

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $769,759$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{707,513.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 126.7)}}\) (asimptote \(707,513.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $20,968$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,775.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(19,775.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $37,596$ on 2020-11-23

Tunisia⮸

Population $11,818,619$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $89,196$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,712.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 229.5)}}\) (asimptote \(107,712.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,862$ on 2020-11-23

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $22,488$ on 2020-11-23

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $10,302$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,164.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,164.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $104$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 204.3)}}\) (asimptote \(152.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $407$ on 2020-11-23

Libya⮸

Population $6,871,292$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $78,473$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,700.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 200.9)}}\) (asimptote \(94,700.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,102$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,268.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 191.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,268.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $27,779$ on 2020-11-23

Morocco⮸

Population $36,910,560$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $327,528$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{784,291.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 265.1)}}\) (asimptote \(784,291.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,396$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,058.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 249.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,058.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $46,974$ on 2020-11-23

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $113,381$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,661.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(104,661.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,560$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,147.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,147.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,840$ on 2020-11-23

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,668$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,413.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,413.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $52$ on 2020-11-23

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,137$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,183.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,183.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $47$ on 2020-11-23

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Togo recovered 30%
Libya recovered 3%

Togo⮸

Population $8,278,724$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,854$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,892.3}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 201.1)}}\) (asimptote \(3,892.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-27 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $64$ on 2020-11-23

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107.5}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 213.9)}}\) (asimptote \(107.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $516$ on 2020-11-23