Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $769,759$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{707,513.3}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 126.7)}}\) (asimptote \(707,513.3\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $20,968$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,775.7}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 130.4)}}\) (asimptote \(19,775.7\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $37,596$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $89,196$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{107,712.6}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 229.5)}}\) (asimptote \(107,712.6\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,862$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-13 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $22,488$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,302$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,164.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 205.8)}}\) (asimptote \(14,164.2\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $104$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{152.7}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 204.3)}}\) (asimptote \(152.7\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $407$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $78,473$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{94,700.3}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 200.9)}}\) (asimptote \(94,700.3\))
Start date 2020-04-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,102$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,268.5}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 191.3)}}\) (asimptote \(1,268.5\))
Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $27,779$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $327,528$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{784,291.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 265.1)}}\) (asimptote \(784,291.1\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,396$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,058.1}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 249.9)}}\) (asimptote \(11,058.1\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $46,974$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $113,381$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{104,661.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 98.9)}}\) (asimptote \(104,661.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,560$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,147.1}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 105.0)}}\) (asimptote \(6,147.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,840$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,668$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,413.4}{1 + 10^{-0.028 (t - 69.7)}}\) (asimptote \(5,413.4\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $61$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{60.2}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 59.0)}}\) (asimptote \(60.2\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $52$ on 2020-11-23
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,137$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,183.9}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 108.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,183.9\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $85$ on 2020-11-23
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{84.9}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 74.3)}}\) (asimptote \(84.9\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $47$ on 2020-11-23